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he United States, the first world producer of oil in 2017?
The development potential of shale oil appears uncertain.
U.S. crude oil production will surpass that of Saudi Arabia in 2017, announced the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its annual report , released on November 12.
With the boom in shale oil, the U.S. mining industry crude would fast become the first in the world.
The resurgence of production in the United States, began in 2007, Uncle Sam would allow to reinvest his throne as the king of oil lost to Saudi Arabia after the beginning of the decline of U.S. production in 1971. Provided that this resurgence continues.
North America (USA & Canada) will even become net exporter of crude by 2030, the IEA predicts. Developments could redistribute cards geopolitics as ever since the fall of the Berlin Wall. According to Fatih Birol, chief economist of the IEA , "the foundations of the global energy system are in the process of moving."
The announcement of the International Energy Agency is of course a lot of noise.
In France, Dominique Seux columnist Echos, take this opportunity and its audience with 1.6 million listeners in the morning slot on France Inter to ask the President Hollande it "frees Green" and allows the exploitation of gas and shale oil in France.
Dominique Seux emphasizes that the United States' approach to energy independence. " The world's largest economy still has a little way to go. In 2011, the United States has extracted 7.8 million barrels of crude per day (Mb / d) plus [corr.] 1 Mb / d of biofuels. Total U.S. production of oil (and its various substitutes and byproducts) 10.9 mb / d, and is therefore already almost on a par with those of Russia and Saudi Arabia. However, still in 2011, the United States consumed daily 18.8 million barrels.
The current recovery in U.S. oil production remains "spectacular" in the words used in the IEA report.
How far the recovery of the American black gold production can she continue? Miracle or mirage?
The IEA estimates are aligned with those of the U.S. Department of Energy, which states that starting next year , the total U.S. production of liquid fuels (including biofuels) will reach 11.4 mb / d, grazing production crude from Saudi Arabia (11.6 Mb / d expected).
First problem: the IEA projections, such as the U.S. Department of Energy to add oil production of the liquefied natural gas (NGL English for Natural Gas Liquid). The NGL, mainly propane, can not, in most cases, to replace petroleum. In particular, only a third of NGL can serve as fuel to an engine. If we exclude these NGL, U.S. crude oil production in the strict sense only achieves 6.2 Mb / d, while Saudi Arabia was 9.9 mb / d . According to Chris Nelder , an independent U.S. oil expert, said that U.S. production will soon meet Saudi production "means that a latte contains as an espresso coffee."
The heart of the problem now: how long will the boom in shale oil production in the United States may he continue?
The production of shale oil is now expanding mainly in the state of North Dakota, on the geological formation known as the Bakken .
The rush to North Dakota, a cold state and isolated at the Canadian border, has attracted many journalists. Oddly, few colleagues have studied the case of the neighboring U.S. state of North Dakota, which also extends the Bakken, and where the exploitation of shale oil is older: Montana.
The production of oil shale in the state of Montana has been declining since 2006, having reached a peak slightly above 100,000 barrels per day.

This graph and the following were posted by Kate Mackenzie, of the blog "Alphaville", on the site of the Financial Times (click the image).
The decline of oil shale in Montana was quick. Yet since 2006, the number of wells has not ceased to grow, said Bob Brackett, an analyst at Bernstein Research author of a study on the development potential of the Bakken.
Bob Brackett provides an explanation for the decline of Montana familiar to readers 'oil man', in an interview published in July :
"The sites where the resources provide limited drilling locations / finishes. Skiset are drilled first, later more less profitable. (...) The industry drilled fruit at hand, and n has now more opportunities to access the same quality. "
The typical profile of shale oil wells is characterized by an almost immediate and extremely rapid decline of extractions:

Fracturing of the rock frees hydrocarbons in a limited area. Maintain high production implies constantly dig new wells ( as we have already explained here ). The production of shale oil requires drilling of ten to one hundred times more wells than for conventional oil, indicates the direction of the French group Total .
It takes about six years, as seen in the graph above, for a well in the Bakken formation is found almost exhausted, becoming what in industry jargon is called a"stripper" that is to say a very low productivity wells. For now, the Bakken has only 200 strippers from his recent wells. In six years, according to Brackett, there should be 4000, constituting [corr.] Most drilled since the beginning of the boom in 2006 wells.
Resources available in North Dakota appear much greater than those that seem to run out in the neighboring Montana.
Bob Brackett nevertheless describes the nature of the trap could close on the hope of revival of U.S. production of black gold:
"All good things come to an end. In the case of North Dakota, the end will not take place for years, but it will be there the same fate" in Montana.
Production expected to increase in North Dakota. However, production costs also necessarily results for increasingly poor in term. The U.S. mining industry shale oils began to run even faster on a treadmill itself more quickly in the opposite direction.Hot! (I'm not talking about the impact on the climate.)
The U.S. Department of Energy plans, after all, a relatively small increase in total production from reservoirs compact: less than 1.5 Mb / d peak located before 2030, against about 0.6 Mb / d today ' Today, according to the reference scenario (pdf, 5.9 MB) . Nothing in itself can radically change anything to the U.S. energy dependence.

Source: Energy Information Administration, 2012. "EUR": Estimated Ultimate Recovery. "TRR" Technically Recoverable Resources, a "highly uncertain" concept, according to the authors (see page 56.).
The experts of the International Energy Agency themselves admit that they are far from having absolute confidence in their own prognosis, which does not make the least "one" everywhere in the business press.
Fatih Birol, chief economist of the IEA, takes pains to emphasize that the geology and performance compact reservoirs in the United States is still "not well" and that it is not certain that new accessible reserves are sufficient to maintain production in the future, reports the Financial Times .
Saudi Arabia would remain the world's largest producer in 2020, Fatih Birol admitted in a telephone interview.
Shale oil will they play Big Oil the same lap as the Alaskan oil? Launched between the two oil shocks of the '70s, the production was to Alaska, according to its promoters at the time, to free the United States from the grip of OPEC. Ten years after its inception, the Alaska crude began its decline:

Last comment (for now) on this new delivery of the World Energy Outlook the IEA - whose previous film was confirmed that the peak of conventional oil - 80% of the world production of crude - was taken in 2006 :
on the same graph where we see the future production of the United States hypothetically surpass that of Saudi Arabia in 2017, we find that the IEA expects that Russia, the current world's second largest producer, began a slow decline from 2015.