INTERVIEWER: This is ... for Ultra Zero.
Today we are speaking with Aisha Caji, political analyst from South Africa, about the breakaway of one of the country's biggest trade unions from an age-old alliance with the country's governing ANC.
Aisha Caji, can you tell us what this means for South Africa at the moment?
Interviewer - This is _("?safigersani?")_ for Al Jazeera. Today we are speaking to Ayeesha Kajee, political analyst from South Africa, about the breakaway of one of the country's biggest trade unions from an age-old alliance with the country's governing ANC. Ayeesha Kajee, can you tell us what this means for South Africa at the moment?
AK - Oh, I think its--, it's in the works, the end of the tripartite alliance between the ANC [African National Congress], COSATU [Congress of South African Trade Unions] and, um, the SACP [South African Communist Party]. COSATU is the largest confederation of, uh, trade unions in the country and one of its larger members is NUMSA, the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa. There's a call by NUMSA for COSATU to break from the ANC-led alliance is quite a significant one. In fact, its general secretary _("?Owen?")_ Irvin Jim has stated quite, uh, clearly that the--, the unions are actually, in the word that is quite colloquial in--, in South Africa, he said the unions are "gatvol" of what is going on within the leadership of the--, the ANC.
Interviewer - Okay, before you continue can you just explain what that term means, for our--, our listeners?
AK - Um, yes, it just means--, it's--, it's--, it's a--, it's a very strong term meaning that, "We're totally fed up," that they're totally fed up, and I think that's indicative, really, of the attitude of more and _("?___?")_ South Africans to, uh, the--. the leadership of the AN _("?currently?")_, especially given the ludicrous explanation that the ANC tried to give for its overspending on the president's private residence.
(1:30) They--, they had a press conference yesterday, and some of the answers given were so ludicrous as to make the average South African believe that the leadership actually think we are stupid as citizens, quite frankly. And, and so, I think that, you know, it's--, it's not, uh, unwarranted for the general secretary of NUMSA to say that, uh, they are fed up, that the time has come to be looking for a political alternative and, uh, he is saying this.
(2:00) He's got a lot of support. NUMSA is one of the largest unions within the federation of COSATU and I think that we are seeing the fracture lines emerging. We're not going to see any alternative new breakaway party emerging from the union before next year's election, There's no time for that. But I think that that fracture will happen post the 2014 election: …a--, a breakaway of COSATU itself from the ANC-led alliance, unless, of course, by some miracle, the ANC comes back to its original values and the type of values that Mr. Mandela espoused, which of course it has seemingly moved away from in recent years, particularly with regard to the nepotism within its ranks, particularly with regard to the growth (of) corruption, and what some would even term kleptocrat amongst leadership.
Interviewer - Okay, before we go on, for our listeners again, can you just, um, explain as well the relevance of COSATU, uh, the trade union federation, to the ANC and the--, the country?
AK - (3:03) Well, yes. Um, the ANC has always styled itself as the party of the people, um, as the party that represents working interests, working class interests, and it's been able to do that largely because of this affiliation with COSATU. Um, you know, it's--, it--, it's been able to command large numbers of supporters, um, both in--, in political and in actual terms, but also in terms of--, of political clout during negotiations, etcetera, because of the grass roots support it has had from the working class and--, and--, and from those affiliated to the labor union.
So, this _("?beyehvyentrish?")_ crisis, firstly for COSATU, if NUMSA exits COSATU, um, COSATU automatically _("?ligibun?" ?loses?)_ a huge chunk of its membership, because NUMSA has, it is estimated, about two hundred and thirty thousand (230,000) members, which is huge. Um, so, you know, al--, that is already a huge chuck of the electorate then, that would normally have almost unthinkingly supported the alliance that will no longer be within that alliance, and will no longer feel that loyalty or, or, or the pressure to vote for the ANC.
Um, so that's a crisis for COSATU. And then, I think that, you know, more and more we're going to see that the unions, the other unions within COSATU are likely to follow suit. Perhaps not immediately, but certainly if the ANC could uh, control down this kind of pow(er)--, its kleptokratic power, we're going to see more and more of the other unions follow suit, to the extent that COSATU itself as a fe--, federation really needs that tripartite alliance in the long--, in the medium-to-long term. As I said, not before next year's election, but perhaps fairly soon after that and in preparation for the following election. And, um, if that happens, the ANC will hemorrhage support.
Interviewer - Okay, so what is it that you--, s--, you think we can expect in next year's election, then?
AK - (5:13) Next year's elections are likely to still be won by the ANC with a considerable majority. I would say that majority will be between forty-five and sixty percent of the electorate will still vote for the ANC because, um, COSATU will remain within the alliance even if NUMSA leaves COSATU.
So, I think that you're going to find that the ANC will maintain its grip on power at least for the following five years, but the real challenge is going to come in after that. I think that come 2019, we're going to see for the first time in South Africa the emergence of an alternative political entity that will pose a serious challenge to the ANC, particularly if it is able to toehold some kind of a coalition. Um, there have been talks of a coalition even now, or belief of a loose alliance of, of opposition parties, but even that they come from such a--, a bridge across the political spectrum, everything from the far right to the far left, um, I don't think that the proposed alliance will really have any impact in elections, um, next year.
INTERVIEWER: Now, you say that this is going to create ah ah ah strong opposition in time to the ANC. At the moment what sort of implications does this have for South Africans?
AK: I think many South Africans are precisely what we previously said they're fucking they're fed up they're really seriously sick of the gross materialism and gross consumerism that is evidenced within the ranks of the elites amongst the ANC leadership and amongst other politically connected people and ?families um and this is particularly ??? when one considers that the average South African that the conditions the living conditions of the average South African over the last 20 years have actually deteriorated in many cases. That many of the promises of ??? in 1994 have not yet been fulfilled. Why are the ANC and the government ??? an enormous amount particularly in ??? terms to uplift some of the people living in the worst poverty because of the ??? and because of the ??? the leadership of the ANC we're seeing that a lot of people living well below the poverty line are becoming increasingly frustrated with the leadership of what they thought was their liberation movement their political party their political home. They are no longer seeing the ANC as they're political home but in the absence of a viable political alternative many of them will continue to vote for the ANC in out of loyalty perhaps and out of some last forlorn hope that this government will still do something to get them out of the kind of economic situation social economic conditions ???
INTERVIEWER: Do you think that change like this within the ANC within ah the labour unions and within South Africa are positive moves for the country or do you feel that this could negatively impact the country in the short term and in the long term?
AK: I think it I think it could go either way. In the short term it could cause ah serious ah infighting within within political ranks. It could it could cause divisions within entities that have hitherto been quite united and that in the short term might cause might start a period of minor economic crisis as well as as well as political ones. In the long term in the medium to long term however I see this as a positive move because it ??? one of two things. It may convince at least to those ANC members and leaders who have not lost all their integrity that it is time for a change of ??? it's time for a change of leadership, it's time for a change of ???. One can only hope that that will happen. If however that doesn't happen the other thing that this series of legal structures now could cause in the medium to long term is the emergence of a truly workable ????? political formation in South Africa that would cause a viable alternative for voters, an alternative to voting ANC.
Interviewer: This is [name of interviewer] for Al Jazeera. Today we are speaking to Ayesha Kajee, political analyst from South Africa, about the breakaway of one of the country's biggest trade unions from an age-old alliance with the country's governing ANC. Ayesha Kajee, can you tell us what this means for South Africa at the moment?
AK: Oh, I think it’s--, it's in the works, the end of the tripartite alliance between the ANC [African National Congress], COSATU [Congress of South African Trade Unions] and, um, the SACP [South African Communist Party]. COSATU is the largest confederation of, uh, trade unions in the country and one of its largest members is NUMSA, the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa. So the call by NUMSA for COSATU to break from the ANC-led alliance is quite a significant one. In fact, its general secretary Irvin--, Irvin Jim has stated quite, uh, clearly that the--, the unions are actually--, he used a word that is quite colloquial in--, in South Africa, he said the unions are "gatvol" of what is going on within the leadership of the--, the ANC.
Interviewer: Okay, before you continue, can you just explain what that term means, for our--, our listeners?
AK: Um, yes, it just means--, it's--, it's--, it's a--, it's a very strong term meaning that, "We're totally fed up," that they're totally fed up. And I think that's indicative, really, of the attitude of more and more South Africans to, uh, the--, the leadership of the ANC currently, especially given the ludicrous explanation that the ANC tried to give for its overspending on the president's private residence.
(1:30) They--, they had a press conference yesterday, and some of the answers given were so ludicrous as to make the average South African believe that the leadership actually think we are stupid as citizens, quite frankly. And, and so, I think that, you know, it's--, it's not, uh, unwarranted for the general secretary of NUMSA to say that, uh, they are fed up, that the time has come to be looking for a political alternative and, uh, he is saying this.
(2:00) He's got a lot of support. NUMSA is one of the largest unions within the federation of COSATU and I think that we are seeing the fracture lines emerging. We're not going to see any alternative new breakaway party emerging from the union before next year's election. There's no time for that. But I think that that fracture will happen post the 2014 election…a--, a breakaway of COSATU itself from the ANC-led alliance. Unless, of course, by some miracle, the ANC comes back to its original values and the type of values that Mr. Mandela espoused, which of course it has seemingly moved away from in recent years, particularly with regard to the nepotism within its ranks, particularly with regard to the gross corruption, and what some would even term kleptocracy amongst its leadership.
Interviewer: Okay, before we go on, for our listeners again, can you just, um, explain as well, the relevance of COSATU, uh, the trade union federation, to the ANC and the--, the country?
AK: (3:03) Well, yes. Um, the ANC has always styled itself as the party of the people, um, as the party that represents working interests, working class interests. And it's been able to do that largely because of this affiliation with COSATU. Um, you know, it's--, it--, it's been able to command large numbers of supporters, um, both in--, in political and electoral terms, but also in terms of--, of political clout during negotiations, et cetera, because of the grass roots support it has had from the working class and--, and--, and from those affiliated to the labor union.
So, this could be an unprecedented crisis, firstly for COSATU. If NUMSA exits, COSATU, um, COSATU automatically loses a huge chunk of its membership, because NUMSA has, it is estimated, about 330,000 members, which is huge. Um, so, you know, al--, that is already a huge chuck of the electorate then, that would normally have almost unthinkingly supported the alliance that will no longer be within that alliance, and will no longer feel that loyalty or, or, or the pressure to vote for the ANC.
Um, so that's a crisis for COSATU. And then, I think that, you know, more and more we're going to see that the unions, the other unions within COSATU are likely to follow suit. Perhaps not immediately, but certainly if the ANC could uh, could tone down this kind of power--, its kleptocratic power, we're going to see more and more of the other unions follow suit, to the extent that COSATU itself as a fe--, federation really needs that tripartite alliance in the long--, in the medium-to-long term. As I said, not before next year's election, but perhaps fairly soon after that and in preparation for the following election. And, um, if that happens, the ANC will hemorrhage support.
Interviewer: Okay, so what is it that you--, s--, you think we can expect in next year's election, then?
AK: (5:13) Next year's elections are likely to still be won by the ANC with a considerable majority. I would say that majority will be between 45 and 60% of the electorate will still vote for the ANC because, um, COSATU will remain within the alliance even if NUMSA leaves COSATU.
So, I think that you're going to find that the ANC will maintain its grip on power at least for the following five years. But the real challenge is going to come in after that. I think that come 2019, we're going to see for the first time in South Africa the emergence of an alternative political entity that will pose a serious challenge to the ANC, particularly if it is able to toehold some kind of a coalition. Um, there have been talks of a coalition even now, or belief, uh, of a loose alliance of, of opposition parties. But even that they come from such a--, a breadth across the political spectrum, everything from the far right to the far left, um, I don't think that the proposed alliance will really have any impact in elections, um, next year.
Interviewer: Now, you say that this is going to create a--, a--, a strong opposition in time to the ANC. At the moment what sort of implications does this have for South Africans?
AK: I think many South Africans are precisely what we just said. They're fucking--, they're fed up. They're really seriously sick of the gross materialism and gross consumerism that is evidenced within the ranks of the elites amongst the ANC leadership and amongst other politically connected people and families. Um, and this is particularly dismaying when one considers that the average South African, that the conditions--, the living conditions of the average South African over the last 20 years have actually deteriorated in many cases. That many of the promises of freedom in 1994 have not yet been fulfilled. While the ANC and that government did do an enormous amount, particularly in the [???] term, to uplift some of the--, the--, the people living in--, in the worst poverty. Because of the availabi--, actually, and because of the--, the--, um, [???] in terms of the leadership of the ANC, we're seeing that a lot of people living well below the poverty line are becoming increasingly frustrated with the leadership of what they thought was their liberation movement, their political party, their political home. They are no longer seeing the ANC as their political home, but in the absence of a viable political alternative, many of them will continue to vote ANC in--, out of loyalty perhaps, and out of some last forlorn hope that this government will still do something to get them out of the kind of economic situation, social economic conditions that they’re living in.
Interviewer: Um, do you think that changes like this within the ANC, within, uh, the labour unions and within South Africa are positive moves for the country, or do you feel that this could negatively impact the country in the short term and the long term?
AK: I think it--, I think it could go either way. In the short term it could cause uh, serious uh, infighting within--, within political ranks. It cause--, it could cause divisions within entities that have hitherto been quite united, and that in the short term might cause--, might start a period of minor economic crises as well as--, as well as political ones. In the long term, in the medium to long term however, I see this as a positive move because it can do one of two things. It may convince -- at least to those ANC members and leaders who have not lost all their integrity -- that it’s time for a change of practice, it's time for a change of leadership, it's time for a change of ethos. We--, one can only hope that that will happen. If however that doesn't happen, the other thing that this series of legal structures now could cause in the medium to long term is the emergence of a truly workable, crafted, elected political formation in South Africa that would cause a viable alternative for voters, an alternative to voting ANC. And if that happens, it can only be healthy with a very young democracy as it matures into adolescence, haha, from the current infant democracy. So I think what we’re looking at now are some of--, of the--, the--, the--, the sort of pre-adolescent pangs that every maturing entity goes through.
Interviewer: Finally, do you feel that South Africans are ready for this change?
AK: I think that by and large most South Africans are. I think it’s time to erase the apathy that’s becoming increasingly visible amongst uh, many citizens -- a political apathy, the sense that it’s almost not worth participating in a political process because nothing in terms of their day-to-day life changes. Um, so I think it’s highly--, some--, something was catalyzed to--, to--, to [???] on the part of people and to make them feel that there--, there’s hope for the future.
Interviewer: Ok. Alright, thank you very much for speaking to us at Al-Jazeera. That’s Ayesha Kajee speaking to Al-Jazeera about the breakaway of one of the largest unions in South Africa from the governing ANC.
This is Sufi Jazani [PH] for Al Jazeera. Today we are speaking to Aisha Kazhee [PH], political analyst from South Africa about the breakaway of one of the country's biggest trade unions from an age-old alliance with the country's governing ANC. Aisha Kazhee, can you tell us what this means for South Africa at the moment?
The quality of the recording is very poor in places and very difficult to decipher.